Oil crisis

Nominaler Erdölpreis 1985-2006
nominal petroleum price 1985-2006

as oil crisis one designates i. A. Phases of strong oil price rises, which have serious overall economic effects. Strictly speaking the two increases of the crude oil price are called 1973 and 1979/80 oil crisis, since both recessions strong in the industrialized countries released. A condition for an oil crisisis it the fact that more oils one uses than is available. The reason for it can be appropriate for the demand side (strong rise of the world-wide crude oil need) on that of offer - (logistic or political problems) or.

Table of contents

Die erste Ölkrise 1973

Description

the first and consequence-fraughtest oil crisis began in the autumn 1973, when the organization that throttled oil of exporting countries consciously the deliveries (over approx. five per cent), in order to increase the price for oil.

To 16. October 1973 rose the oil price of approximately three dollarper barrel (159 litres) on over five dollar. This corresponds to a rise over approx. 70 per cent. In the process of the next yearly the world oil price rose to over twelve dollar.

This event entered also under the name oil embargo history. The addressed throttling thatDeliveries was calculation and a political argument of the OPEC states, which did not agree with the policy of some oil-importing concerning states the Jom Kippur war. In the oil embargo participated Algeria, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia and the united Arab emirates .

effects

The oil crisis of 1973 demonstrated the unpreparedness and susceptibility to interference of modern industrial nations in relation to a multiplicity of factors of influence as well as their dependence on fossil energy.

In Germany as direct reaction to the crisis on four Sundays in November and December 1973 a driving ban was imposed (Sundays driving ban) as well as new speed limitings imported. This politics had hardly an economical effect, gave to the population however the feeling to be able to contribute actively something to the accomplishment of the crisis. 1974 had to pay Germany for its oil imported goods approximately 17 billion DM more than in the year before (oil price shock),which introduced an economic situation crisis. The oil crisis marks thereby the end of the Wirtschaftswunders. In the consequence so far to a large extent unknown features arose, about to short-time work, unemployment, rising social expenditures, intensified inflation (better: Stagflation), rising national indebtedness, rationalization, strike, Unternehmenspleiten.

ThoseOil crisis bore initiatives, which had a larger independence from the oil to the goal. Thus alternative fuels moved such as vegetable oil and bio Diesel in the public interest. It increased in nuclear energy, regenerativ energy sources, the thermal insulation of buildings and into the efficiency increase of engines and Heaters invests. Also with the fading away of the oil crisis a risen consciousness remained to the energy-saving behavior in the population. Besides the portion of the oil referred from OPEC - states was lowered by development of submarine oil fields in the North Sea as well as a diversification of the trade partners. This development is in the meantime in favor of the OPEC declining.

The re-establishment of the time conversion of the standard time to the summer time in the Federal Republic of Germany as in other countries of the European Union in the year 1980 is considered likewise than aftereffect of the oil crisis 1973. The decision was based on the conviction, with the regulation throughto be able to save a better use of the daylight energy.

In some western states in the consequence of the crisis military options were considered. Over 30 years a common plan secretly held according to of the British and American governments an invasion of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait article was thatPlanning.“It which thought that US airborne troops would seize the oil installation in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and might even ask the British tons of DO the same in Abu Dhabi.” Source

for the reconciliation of the price increases in some industrialized countries by the central banks increases moneybrought in circulation. This led however to be expected as according to the quantity theory to a increased inflation rate in the following years, which could be terminated only by a rigidere financial and monetary policy during the 1980er.

Also the general oil boom became world-wide with growth rates of the promotion over7% by the oil crisis abruptly terminate.

the second oil crisis 1979

a further drastic price increase took place during the second oil crisis 1979/1980. It was released essentially by promotion losses and disconcertion after the revolution in Iran and the following attack of Iraqon Iran [the first Gulf War]. The price rise at that time found with approx. 38 US Dollar its provisional end.

the second Gulf War 1990 1990

and 1991,

when the Iraq

Kuwait annektierte and the second Gulf War lost , one spoke further phases of strong oil price rise [work on] againfrom a forthcoming oil crisis, because both countries belonged at this time to the largest oil producers. It came however only to a brief high-fast of the price.

world-economical recovery after the Asia crisis 2000

after overcoming of the Asia crisis grew the world economy and concomitantly thatDemand for oil fast on. The climatic conditions in the severe winter 2001/2002 led likewise to a increased demand for oil. The effects were smaller than in the 70's. Heightenings of the oil delivery prevented a serious oil crisis, and logistic problems (for instance a number lacking of oiling anchors) weighed more heavily thanan actual scarceness of the quantity of oil.

2004 and 2005 in the course of the yearly

2004 the oil price achieved rising oil demand and capacity bottlenecks temporarily conditions of 53 dollar. At this time different political and economic loads of the oil market met. The surrounding field luredSpeculators just like anxious oil dealers on and led too strongly rising prices. To 29. August 2005 the crude oil prices rose due to the devastating hurricane Katrina, which impaired the oil production in the gulf of Mexico and the refining in the USA, to 70 USD per barrel (159 litres). Thereupon placed the USA to a request with the international energy agency to bring oil from oil reserves on the market.

Record marks of the oil prices per barrel since 2005:

  • In the middle of March 2005: 56 dollar
  • 24. June 2005: 60 dollar
  • 11. August 2005: 65 dollar
  • 29.August 2005: 70 dollar
  • 19. April 2006: 72.17 dollar

the final oil crisis

the oil fields of the earth there is finite, is to be assumed it will come in the future to a final oil crisis. One speculates that, if the high point of the annual deliveryfor oil (peak oil), it is reached in the course of the deliveries falling then with invariably existing demand to substantial price increases comes. Differently than the past, essentially politically motivated Produktionsdrosselungen this final oil crisis is released by the material decrease of the promotion. The consequence is a forced paradigm change in the past world economy which is based on oil. A suggestion on the avoidance of a sudden and radical price rise comes from the geologist Colin J. Campbell in form of Rimini minutes.

Estimations over the arrival of this situation call the years 2015 to 2050. ThatReach the maximum oil delivery partly for 2010 one prognosticates; partly also one subordinates, it is today already reached. Against technological progress works, by which one can promote or transport oil more favorably or which from so far not promotable resources promotable reserves to make. Thus have themselveshistorical prognoses over earlier occurring of a final oil crisis yet does not prove to be true (keyword oil constant).

A superproportionally rising oil price leads to various influences on the world economy. Since the raw material is oil in the industry basis of many materials and indispensable source of energy, is a rise of thegeneral price levels to expect (inflation). Thus the global interest becomes indirect - and fiscal policy, the stock market and national budgets, the number of the unemployed persons, who affect social security systems and many more. It can be speculated that it by constantly rising prices to a continuousworld-wide economic crisis comes.

Direct effects are to expect:

Over the further effects a large number of theses and speculations exists to a final oil crisis.

see also

Web on the left of

Wiktionary: Oil crisis - word origin, synonyms and translations
 

  > German to English > de.wikipedia.org (Machine translated into English)