Bazaar economics

the hypothesis of the bazaar economics goes back on Hans Werner sense, which coined/shaped the term for the German economy. She states that the portion of the domestic creation of value of the industrial production continues to decrease always, and in response the portion of the payments in advance referred from the foreign country increases. This is inland interpreted as consequence of a reducing manufacturing depth, D. h. ever larger parts of the creation of value chain are shifted abroad. The hypothesis in particular excited public interest in the discussion around the title export world champion, whom the German trade proclaims at present for itself.

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reason and criticism

the reasons for the fact to be able having that the production conditions are partly better abroad (z. B. lower labour costs). Ever more German enterprises shift their labor intensive portion of the creation of value chain abroad, in order to escape thereby from the high German labour costs. The bazaar hypothesis interprets this form of the international division of labor as problematic, because the loss leads at manufacturing depth to a decrease of the domestic occupation. This is strengthened and. And. because (political) counter measures are not introduced too late at all because of a missing public perception or - any export successes of the domestic national economy emislead about the removing creation of value portion inland.

The Federal association of the German industry refers about to the fact that foreign trade data strongly of rate of exchange - developments are dependent. The BDI explains thus the up-to-date increasing goods exports with in the last years a comparatively weak euro.

Both the empirical support of the hypothesis and the interpretation of the actual division of labor as „bazaar “- economics as well as the evaluation of qualities of location of Germany are very disputed among economists. Trade unionnear economists such as z. B. Peter Bofinger and Rudolf Hickel contradict the bazaar hypothesis.

Also the neoliberale initiative new one social free-market economy and Institut of the German economy deny the hypothesis of the bazaar economics, the latter refer however in its own study on an existing bazaar effect. Therein it is explained that the portion of the imported payments in advance of the export rose in Germany, which however is completely normal in a world of the increasing division of labor. In addition the contribution of the exports did not rise for domestic gross value creation anywhere as strongly as in Germany, which is based on a strong competitive ability of the German industry. In the past years the labour costs rose hardly still and the local conditions relative to countries such as France, Great Britain and Italy strongly improved. Therefore Germany is not by any means a bazaar economics, means restaurant economics Institut. , That does not remain nevertheless marking the IW Cologne by any means the bazaar effect, thus the effect of the international division of labor on the manufacturing depth of the industry (n) doubts. In the agreement for sense remarks the IW Cologne certifies an increase of the growth rate of the export-induced imported goods (export-dependent payment in advance imported goods from the foreign country) in Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Italy. For Germany classify the institute for economic research like also the IW Cologne this development in the international comparison as relatively high. However this occupation-threatening development so far overcompensated by the growth of the export-induced creation of value. Despite the refusal of the bazaar economics after sense the IW Cologne in the final report refers to an existence of the bazaar effect and divides the politico-economic implications of the institute for economic research: „A central cause is that by the social system an actual minimum wage is given, that a wage adjustment on competitive level prevented. The solution consists of permitting market wages and supplementing it below a certain level with national transfers. A further problem are the bad basic conditions in Germany. Work is too expensive in Germany. The result is that numerous German enterprises work very capital-intensively and with a high portion on foreign payments in advance. A direct consequence of superelevated wages is the intensified tendency to the outsourcing and Offshoring, the misalignment of production parts in favor of of locations in low wage countries. “(IW Cologne 2005, final report)

the board of experts for the investigation of the overall economic development was concerned likewise with the question of the export-induced creation of value and job-creating effects by export-induced payment in advance imported goods (the development of the exports: World champion or bazaar? Excerpt from the annual appraisal 2004/2005, numbers 460 to 468 and appendix): „The development between the years 1991 and 2002 shows clearly that per from exports a ever smaller portion is based to obtained euro on creation of value in Germany. Differently turned the foreign creation of value portion per from exports obtained euro increased from 26,7 front spars to 38,8 front spars [...] exaggerated this than tendency to the bazaar economics was designated. “(Board of experts 2004, S. 359) Despite the acceptance of a certain compensation, that by misalignment abroad the advice states set free workers, by domestic service industries: „More special fears are directed however in particular toward possible negative consequences of the foreign trade for the occupation chances of small qualified workers. These countries point substantial labour costs advantages opposite Germany to […] so that a misalignment of labor intensive production processes lies into these countries close. Also noticeable changes of the regional and sparkling wine-oral structure of the import portions with these countries point on that. “(Board of experts 2004, number 468, S. 360 f.) The board of experts explains besides that after its computations the occupation of the processing trade in the period increasingly depends 1991 to 2000 in nearly all industries on the export. Further the advice states the fact that within 12 ranges of the processing trade the decrease of the export-induced occupation points on the fact that the negative job-creating effects of the risen foreign payment in advance purchases overcompensated the potentially possible positive job-creating effects of the risen exports here. (Board of experts 2004, number 468, S. .) although

the risen export-induced domestic gross value creation (1991-2000) could have partly compensated the process of the release of workers, the appraisal of the advice points 363 f out on the basis the computations in detail that between 1991 and 1995 the export-dependent gainful employment dropped around 19%, whereas it rose between 1995 and 2000 again around 8,9%. More seriously however the development of the number of all employed persons is in the processing trade, which was fallen around 19,9% (1991-1995) and further 5.6% (1995-2000). (Board of experts 2004, number 468, S.363f.) the acceptance of the export-dependent employed persons 592,000 places (1991-2000) amounts to balanced, while the employed persons in the processing trade reduced altogether by 2.439.000 places. (Board of experts 2004, S. 360 f.)

that Federal Statistical Office likewise with the bazaar thesis argued: „Even if one assumes that that the import portion of the exports in the period affected 1995 to 2002 absorbing the GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, became this overcompensated with the positive effect of the export demand for domestic products, risen strongly. “Sound Federal Office developed the portion of the exports from domestic creation of value from 1995 to 2002 of 70,3% to 61,2%. The portion of the creation of value furnished for export goods of the restaurant achievement rose from 1995 to 2002 even from 16,2% to 20,8%.

Also the DIW expressed itself similarly as the SVR and the Federal Statistical Office. The authors come to the result that the rising export value cannot serve the German industry by any means without Problematisierung as indicator for competitive ability: „Undoubted is the sinking gross value creation in the processing trade in connection with the rising […] To see payment in advance imported goods. […]It is also not surprising that this tendency accelerates itself in view of the intensifying liberalisation of the intra-European trade. “(DIW weekly report 40/2004)

the trade paper, one of the largest German trade journals, calls to 17. October 2005 an article as follows: „Sense fairy tale of the bazaar. In his new book the Ifo boss one publicises long disproved thesis “(title/sub-title). In the text: „Actual is long disproved the bazaar thesis. Of the board of experts, of the Federal Statistical Office, of Investmentbanken. The refusal reaches from trade unionnear Institut for Makroökonomie up to employernear Institut of the German economy. “

international comparison

the USA, Japan and Germany

Exporte und Exportüberschüsse im Verhältnis zum BIP
exports and export surpluses in relation to the GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

in the illustration are represented for the triad countries, thus the three largest national economies of the world, the exports in relation to the respective GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, in addition the net export in relation to the GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. Rising export quotas point to an increasing commercial entwinement of the world (globalization).

Therefore Germany is actually prominent which the relationship between exports at goods and services to the GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT concerns, also the FRG obtains a considerable export surplus (exports minus imported goods). The USA against it are for years in the foreign trade (goods and services collected) in the minus.

The import ratio (imported goods in relation to the GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT) results in the illustration as difference between export and net export quota.

bazaar economics the USA

of the US economists Lester Thurow used for the USA the term bazaar economics, does not describe however exactly this circumstances. It concerns the question, how the high foreign trade deficit of the USA could be diminished. A possibility would be to increase the exports of the USA. Thurow states however that straight consists in the USA a large part of the exports again of imported goods, so that the effect on the external contribution might fail rather weakly. Thurow accordingly unfavorably estimates the possibilities of diminishing the foreign trade deficit of the USA without large distortions of the world economy.

bazaar economics China

China has a large foreign trade surplus, opposite Japan, opposite the USA South Korea and Taiwan however a high foreign trade deficit. The two latter national economies again refer many Vorprodukte from Japan. China with its cheap workers will be experienced to the subsequent treatment used by Vorprodukten, which originally come from Japan, in the cheap wage countries South Korea and Taiwan a first subsequent treatment, be then finished placed in the cheap wage country China completely, and then to the USA or to the European Union to be supplied.

see also

to literature

  • Lester Thurow (2004): The future of the world economy. From the English by Bernd Rullkötter. Campus publishing house Frankfurt, New York. ISBN 3-593-37401-3
  • Hans Werner sense (2005): The bazaar economics. Econ publishing house. ISBN 343018536X

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