Decrease in population

decrease in population is the form of the population trend, with which the birth rate is lower than the mortality rate and/or with that the drift is higher than the Zuwanderung. In particular the natural decrease in population, thus the influence of birth and mortality rate, is on the one hand the malthusianistisch regarded resultan excessive increase in population and on the other hand a feature of the post office-modern industrial company.

The decrease in population in the latemodern industrial company particularly goes for the 1990er years into action. Thus there were some industrialized countries with considerable decrease in population, like for example Bulgaria, in the year 2003 already Italy, Russia, the Ukraine or Hungary. In the future further industrial nations will be confronted with this circumstance. The natural decrease in population in some few developing countries, which registered very high growth rates before, like for example Botswana (- 0,55% in the year 2003), Simbabwe or South Africa, leaves itself however onlyon AIDS - epidemic disease lead back.

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situation in the industrial nations

in the developed industrial nations, in particular in Europe, already is since the introductionthe contraceptive pill end of the 1960er years a natural decrease in population to register (pill break), which could become than balanced however by the immigration so far more. The Fertilitätsrate removing on a long-term basis leads however not only to relating this migration surplus, but also to sociopolitical problems, before those demographersfor a long time had warned.

On the one hand the infrastructure of the industrial nations is rather appropriate for growth as on contraction; the consequences are empty-standing houses, above all renovation-needy old buildings, which would be often receive worth, the omission of connections of the public suburban traffic or the locking of village supermarkets.

On the other handthe pension system of the industrialized states is in such a way developed that current contribution payers must pay for current annuitants (generation contract). The consequence is that less contribution payer for more receiver must pay, whereby the contributions rise alternatively or the pensions sink. The conversion to alternative systems, howa plant-supported self-sufficiency for the own later pension, is accomplished partly, is however with difficulty completely convertible and changes nothing in the problem the fact that less and less people work and ever more humans into retirement will go (see also Mackenroth thesis). Instead of pension sinkings one would have probably lateran inflationary effect, since more humans their inserts let disburse, than young humans put on new.

A further consequence of the decrease in population is the transformation of the age pyramid to a form, which can be described as “age Dönerspiess”: A population structure with few children and young humans, but alsomany old humans; the curve drops then only at the high age again. This has also social consequences: The society “obsolete “and is closed child-poor, schools and kindergartens. At the same time the need of maintenance personnel rises.

In some cases it is to be also observed thatthe society more child-hostilely becomes alienated or at least from children. The last circumstance is not to be due however by any means to the natural decrease in population, but to social changes, which belong at the same time to the causes of the decrease in population. In addition belongs above all the transformation of the social position of the woman ofone for household and children responsible person to an employed person, who changes its needs over, thus the child desire, also accordingly.

When tried consequence of this development to stop or at least brake the decrease in population. In addition a family policy is led, the children and parents financiallysupported and care mechanisms promotes. One must see however that pairs with children are often already therefore financially disadvantaged, because at least the woman must vocationally suspend for a while and thus on the one hand fewer pension contributions accumulates on the other hand disadvantages in the vocational career in purchase takemust.

Besides it is disputed whether these promotions lead at all to the fact that more and in former times children are born. Because on the one hand there is a north-south gap in Europe: In Scandinavia with an exemplary family policy more children are born clearly than in south Europe. On the other hand one can do theseEffect within Germany in such a way do not observe: In the eastern Lands of the Federal Republic the support is clearly better developed by Kindertagesstätten due to the GDR - history than in West Germany, while time unemployment lies clearly more highly than in the west, why there must be more women, because of onePregnancy no vocational disadvantages to anyway fear must. Nevertheless the birth rate is not significantly higher in the east of Germany than in the west. Therefore as a substantial reason for a postponing of the child desire the personal future view is called.

The decrease in population represents certainly a social problem. That italso an economic problem represents, could not not be proven empirically. With the former Ostblockländern for example the economic crises of the 1990er are years not on the decrease in population beginning to attribute but to the restructuring after the collapse of communism. The contraction of a national economy in of decrease in population a concernedCountry does not refer to the lowering of the standard of living . In addition the Pro-Kopf-Einkommen serves as indicator.

situation in the developing countries

as mentioned, at present only few underdeveloped countries are affected by a decrease in population, the states, which are confronted with the AIDS problem. Howeveralso a developing country will also occur such as China over a billion inhabitant in some years the phase of the decrease in population, if the Fertilitätsrate of 1,8 does not increase. Even in industrialized countries such as Germany a birth rate of 2,1 would be necessary, in order to keep the total population stable.

ecological consequences

in the sense of global environmental protection a decrease in population is worthwhile regarded partly than. Thus could possibly. the increasing contamination and resources consumption to be reduced.

historical

decrease in population without outside factors such as hunger/epidemics/war is historically oneException feature. Only from the late phase of the Roman realm it is well-known. The Roman emperor Augustus issued marriage laws, which should solve the problem of the population arrears. Men of 25 to 60 and women of 20 to 50 years had to be therefore married. Otherwise, they hadPenalties pay. (see:The marriage laws of the Augustus (English))

literature

  • Franz Xaver buyer: Shrinking society, Suhrkamp 2005 (ISBN 3-518-12406-4). Specializedscientific paper, which brings up for discussion the sociological consequences of a durable decrease in population.


see also

 

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