Fibonacci Börsenzyklik

the Fibonacci Börsenzyklik is a charttechnische analysis method, with which future trends of prices at stock markets are to be predicted.

Table of contents

to the prehistory

the Fibonacci Börsenzyklik has many fathers. All develop on the Elliott waves - theory, which developed after the stock exchange collapse starting from the year 1929. In the following article becomes the contribution of Wolfgang elbow, geb. 1928, described. With own inventions it created 1952 from smallest beginnings an enterprise increasing in the course of 25 years up to 300 coworkers, which it led until 1977. It manufactured solenoid actuators for the then tape recorder industry. From the president of the German patent office suggested, he received the Diesel medal in silver to 1976 of the Dieselkuratorium. As ancillary industry its enterprise depended extremely on the economic situation. He became acquainted with therefore the Zyklik of the economy, the order books and the number of coworkers, from first hand. it began 1982 with the publication of the stock exchange letter „stock exchange and economics - cyclically regards “. Because its experiences show that for the success of an enterprise and with stock exchange transactions the knowledge of the respective cyclic connections is extremely helpful in particular.

the method

with the help of the Fibonacci Börsenzyklik is to be determined above all the prospective time described here, at that a cyclically caused course movement their high point and/or. their locking low reaches: Basis this charttechnischen analysis method lies in realization that almost any stock exchange cycle, which can cover hours, days, weeks or longer periods itself generally in accordance with the Fibonacci Zahlenreihe (after Leonardo Fibonacci) in 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 etc. Unterzyklen divides. At the beginning of a cycle the course rises and to the end falls it. With the Unterzyklen this is pronounced on and starting from less. Usually a cycle consists of three Unterzyklen in the boom phases, while in the fall of prices every now and then two Unterzyklen form a cycle. Such cycles particularly are with market-broad indices, like with the Dow-Jones index of the US stock market to observe the DAX or with the gold. With this analysis method it concerns an advancement of the Elliott waves - theory. Contrary to Elliott starting from beginning of cycle first the Hochpunkte lying one above the other are counted, whereby the course summit of a cycle always with a Fibonacci number, z. B. with 8, provably and afterwards far is sequential the among themselves lying highs. The last high before the end of sequence can be marked likewise by a Fibonacci number, for example by the following 13. Since the cycles and the Hochpunkte are independently counted, it concerns with the Fibonacci Börsenzyklik described here a controlling analysis method.

Very short cycles are about one stock exchange day long. They develop due to recommendations z. B. the banks to buy a certain share. Subsequently, the course of this share rises, drops back however on the same day again. Due to the Fibonacci Additionssystematik from it superordinate cycles with 3, 5, 8, 13, etc. result. Stock exchange days. A typical such superordinate cycle corresponds one stock exchange week with five working days. Longer cycles cover 5, 8, 13 up to 144 etc. Weeks. For a connection for many years of this kind the length of the fall of prices is characteristic starting from the long-term course summit Dow-Jones index of the US stock market of 14. January 2000 up to their end at the 11. October 2002, which covered approximately 144 stock exchange weeks.

The experience shows that affects the stock exchanges and/or. are manipulated, which promotes the Zyklik. This happens for example with the course-oppressive on the day exactly platzierten message in all important media: „Belgium sells 30 tons of gold “. That is however at the smallest expenditure, only with press releases, only with help of the Zyklik possible. Thereby on is strengthened and starting from the courses schubweise or weakened in fall of prices phases. In practice it, in particular with the market-broad indices, comes by on and starting from the courses to ( a fraktalen character exhibiting) the Elliott waves. They are called in accordance with the Fibonacci Börsenzyklik described here cycles, itself the up swings, whereby the course summit in the 3. , 5. , 8. , 13. etc. Cycle develops, starting from which this happening dies down likewise. Each cycle consists of in each case a Fibonacci number corresponding number of smaller cycles, which is explained with addition systematics of the Fibonacci Zahlenreihe.

criticism

Wissenschafter came to the realization, which stock exchange courses would move purely coincidentally in accordance with the Zufallsfunktion. That is the statement of the random milling theory. To it also the objection might to be attributed have, charttechnische methods to the stock exchange analysis is a Pseudowissenschaft on the level of modern Hellseherei. In addition belongs the Elliott wave theory, which is a “number plaything” and which would receive from it come out Fibonacci Zyklik, which gespickt also a few well sounding mathematical words, a scientific painting.

contradiction to the criticism

the practical experience shows that market-broad indices, like for example the Dow-Jones index of the US stock market, which DAX or the gold, with which charttechnischen method represented here is analyzable: Particularly regarding the prospective time, at that a cyclically caused course movement their high point and/or. their locking low reaches. Also the economic cycles of the economy are classifyable with this method and/or. can be arranged in superordinate cycles, which to a large extent in Germany the DAX follows.

A further objection, it concerns a private theory, can be weakened likewise: The described Fibonacci Börsenzyklik forms the basis since 1982 of the Wolfgang elbow GmbH of published stock exchange letter “stock exchange and economics - cyclically regards”. In this stock exchange letter the long-term course summits Dow-Jones index and DAX von Anfang of 2000 on one week were prognosticated exactly in each case. Beginning and end of the following fall of prices thrusts often on the day exactly, because of the stock exchange signals more precise in fall of prices times. In the year 2005 was it and. A. the low of the Dow and DAX of 20. April. The stock exchange letter is primarily well-known among specialists, because from an Internet side, no advertisement for it is refrained is operated.

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