under Pandemie (Greek πανδημία - concerning all people) one understands the landspreading or even world-wide outbreak of an illness. Contrary to the epidemic disease a Pandemie is not locally limited. That means that a Pandemie concern the whole world populationcan and not at the borders of a country or a continent stop makes.
Also with Pandemien there are areas, which are not affected by the illness. By their separated situation some mountain valleys, peoples in the jungle or inhabitant of lonely islands can remain exempted from an infection.
Table of contents
the word Pandemie is from the Greek words pan (= everything) and demo (people) derived, it designation thus something, thatthe whole people and/or. everything alike meets. The term Pandemie is not used therefore, just as few as the term epidemic disease, for animal diseases; with pandemieartigen animal diseases frequently the term epidemic course is used.
examples of Pandemien
large one Pandemien in history were for example:
- Justiniani plague so mentioned, broken out 541, their effects to in 8. Century were noticeable. The plague spread in the entire Mediterranean area and demanded numerous victims.
- Plague (1347 - 1352),Propagation over whole Europe, estimated 25 million dead ones (a third of the European population at that time, S. also black death)
- plague (1896 to approximately 1945), world-wide propagation, approximately 12 million dead
- Spanish flu (1918 - 1920),world-wide propagation, 500 million patient, 20 to 50 million dead ones (50 million according to Johnson, “Updating the accounts: Global Mortality OF the 1918-1920 “Spanish” influenza Pandemic” bulletin OF the History OF Medicine - volume 76, NUMBER 1, jump 2002, pp. 105-115)
- Asiatic flu (1957), 1 million dead
- Hong Kong flu (1968), 700,000 dead
- AIDS (for approximately 1980, still persisting), world-wide propagation, more than 25 million dead ones, approx. Infected 40 million (conditions: At the end of of 2005 source: UNAIDS)
Remarkablyare above all the often only short times, in which the diseases grassieren. This can be explained above all by the fact that there are often also immune individuals due to the various gene pool, so that the propagation of the exciter with the timeone dams, since most potential carriers already died. In other cases the propagation of an illness is contained by long-term changes. Thus the spreading of the plague was prevented particularly by improved hygiene, what in reverse also its renewed propagationin the years first and the Second World War explains.
Pandemiephasen according to WHO
the WHO differentiates between altogether six Pandemiephasen:
- Phase 1: A new virus Subtyp in animals was discovered, without a danger for humansexists.
- Phase 2: A new virus Subtyp in animals was discovered, which is estimated as possibly dangerous for humans.
- Phase 3: Beginning of the alarm phase:Isolated humans are infected, it effected however no transmission from humans to humans or onlyvery rarely and then also only with closest contact of the infected ones too each other.
- Phase 4: Small, locally limited amassments of infections with isolated people people infections, which suggests that the virus is not well adapted at humans.
- Phase 5: Substantial Pandemie risk:Large, but still isolated amassments of infections with locally limited people to thrust bearing, what suggests the fact that the virus is adapted at humans increasingly better but is not yet completely from humans transferable to humans.
- Phase 6: Beginning of the Pandemie:Increasing one and continuous transmissions from humans to humans in the entire population.
This effect becomes clear also at the spreading of SARS in the year 2003: while one could proceed in Asia still from classical spreading ways, the increasing number of the illnesses showed this travel effect in Canada quiteclearly.
The plague in the Middle Ages came probably on board trading vessels from Asia to Europe.
Naturally some pathogens, depending upon transmission path, can spread also without such “technical aids” fast over large surfaces and distances, but prevent thereby usually geographicalBarriers the world-wide spreading.
scenario of a Pandemie by the example of influenza A/H5N1
special explosiveness could win nowadays the bird flu in such a way specified of the Subtyp influenza A/H5N1, which can be spread also without each effort of humans by migratory birds.Their the WHO assigned for quite some time the Pandemie Warnstufe to 3.
If the A/H5N1-Viren should mutate, so that they will transfer from humans to humans could, some experts expect a scenario, which runs off in two phases:
- In a first phase ofup to six months still no sufficient quantity of vaccine would be available. In this phase antiviral medicines, apart from protection measure names and quarantine, could be the only possible weapons against the virus. It is recommended therefore, for 20 - 25%to keep available the population such medicines.
- In a second phase an inoculation protection would be developed, which production capacities would very probably not be sufficient for the large need however. Therefore the official emergency plans for the Pandemiefall see and. A. also forwards,that for example hospital, police and fire-brigade personnel with priority are to be supplied. Furthermore many experts demand to develop nationally subsidized over-capacities with the medicament manufacturers. Because in addition it can not be expected that inoculation offer a complete protection, must the other measures thatFight also in the second phase to be used.
For the successful fight of a Pandemie it is compellingly necessary to reduce the propagation speed. Only so time for counter measures (development of suitable vaccines) can be won. Furthermore Vorbreitungen for the fact are to be met thatsufficient hospital beds to be made available can. Thus the German society for internal medicine at the end of wrote April 2006 in a press release: “It should come a daily to a global illness outbreak, into Germany presumably 360,000 humans a place in the hospital would need.”
into the areas concerned investigator
( field epidemiologist) sent crisis plans for the case of a Pandemie the WHO. These observe partially at substantial expenditure the current transmission paths and developments of the virus. In many states became national crisis plans forthe case of a solid transition of bird flu viruses to humans compiles. In Japan for example a state of emergency plan was submitted, which plans also the obligation transfer of gotten sick one in Hospitale, the locking of schools and the prohibition of large meetings. The VR China announced,to close if necessary the national borders. Also the Australian emergency plan plans a locking of all ports and airfields for traffic with the foreign country.
emergency planning in the German-speaking countries
as also in other countries becomes emergency planning in Germany thancriticizes insufficiently: Authority and financing disputes between federation and countries ensured in Germany for the fact that an only insufficient precaution is operated. While the disaster control in the ministries of the Interior of the 16 countries ressortiert, the Ministries Of Agriculture are, for an epidemic disease for an animal epidemic diseaseunder humans the Ministries of Health responsibly. Lower disaster control authority are the land advice and mayor of the circle-free cities, and those are - was it shown as in the circle Rügen in February 2006 - prepares often insufficiently. The Federal Office for population protection and disaster relief does not havedirect direct access, also not the Federal Ministry of the Interior.
Instead of for 25% (WHO - recommendation) or 20% (Robert institute for cook) of the population become in some Lands of the Federal Republic at present only for 10% (Hamburg) and/or. 4.5% (Saxonia-Anhalt) of the population antiviral medicinesavailable held. In the middle of announced the hessian Social Departments February 2006, the country aims at providing with stock to in the middle of 2007 for 30% of the population of medicines. In addition one will prove general hospitals, which are to supply flu patient with priority in case of a Influenza Pandemie.
ForGermany developed Robert the institute for cook as basis for the estimation of the consequences of a Pandemie several scenarios. The worst variant subordinates additional physician attendance to 21 million and up to 160.000 dead ones. As more realistic however a middle variant is regarded, with thatin addition, still approx. 100.000 additional deaths to be subordinated.
Also companies would have themselves in Germany, so the critics, contrary to whom the USA not yet sufficiently for measures for operating continuation prepares. In Switzerland is the obligation camp with the antiviralMedicines to at the end of of 2005 filled up its, in case of a Pandemie thus sufficient medicines would be present starting from 2006. Up to then one must be limited with the supply to groups of risks. Thus for example persons are in the agricultural industry meant, earliestwould know contact with the virus to have.
Since in Austria the health care is national thing, the federation can offer only to recommendations and co-ordinations. So far by the federation the acquisition of medicine doses for 15% of the population was decided, in Lower Austria became this quantityalready procures. The Austrian national crisis plan for the fight of the classical poultry plague from the year 2000 was updated in September 2005, furthermore in the summer 2005 on suggestion of the WHO a Pandemieplan was submitted, which describes comprehensively recommendations for measures in the Pandemiefall.Also constantly staff exercises of the employment organizations are accomplished, whereby it is always a burr migration to inform humans and to produce nevertheless no panic. In order to be able to meet suspicious factors already arising with the birds themselves, to all announcements one follows andInvestigations of the Kadaver are accomplished in veterinary Institut Mödling. The civil defense federation in Austria activated homepage with behavior rules for the case of a Pandemie. See for this Austrian civil defense federation
emergency planning in the USA
in the USA being supposed inthe coming years according to an announcement of the president of the 1. November of 2005 substantial funds to be made available, in order to develop a new generation from technologies to, so that within six months after outbreak of an epidemic disease enough vaccine for all US citizens are producedcan. Furthermore the purchase is to be financed from already existing vaccine against H5N1, in order to be able to protect 20 million American. A billion US Dollar are finally on the storage of antiviral medicines will spend, which can moderate the symptoms of a flu illness.
Further plans are to make it possible to express and specify travel prohibition, which persons with the limited existence of the antiviral medicines preferentially to be supplied to be supposed. Also the adhesion regulations for vaccine manufacturers are to be defused, in order to increase their manufacture capacities. For the moment is the Pharmafirmenvery reservedly with manufacturing new vaccines, because them the risk from damage suits is to large.
Since that 2. November 2005 switched the US Government additionally offensive homepage with behavior rules for the Pandemiefall. US homepage to the Pandemiefall
- W. H. Haas: Principles and aspects of epidemic alarm planning by the example of the Influenzapandemieplanung. Federal health sheet 9 (2005), S. 1020-1027 ()
- And. Kuhnle, W. Krahl: Dengue fever and hemorrhagic Dengue fever. The deadly Pandemie 20. Century. Monthly reports child medicine 147 (1), S.48 - 50 (1999), ISSN 0026-9298
- H. Leisch: The AIDS Pandemie - regional effects of a global epidemic. Geographical ones round-look 53 (2), S. 26 - 31 (2001), ISSN 0016-7460
- And. Wagner: Dengue fever. The unknown Pandemie. Pharmaceutical newspaper 147 (7), S. 52 -55 (2002), ISSN 0031-7136
- B. M. Gensthaler: Influenza. Fear before the Pandemie. Pharmaceutical newspaper 148 (34), S. 30 - 31 (2003), ISSN 0031-7136
- Jeffery K. Taubenberger, Ann H. Reid, Thomas's G. Fanning: The killer virus of the Spanish flu.Spektrum der Wissenschaft, April2005, S. 52 - 60 (2005), ISSN 170-2971
Web on the left of
|Wiktionary: Pandemie - word origin, synonyms and translations|
- Robert cook Institut of national Influenza Pandemieplan
- Pandemieplan of the Foreign Office (pdf)
- WHO Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response
- of center for Disease control andPrevention (CDC)
- U.S. Army Medical Research of institutes OF Infectious Diseases
- ECDC - European counterpart to the CDC
- further training by Podcast about Influenza Pandemie web page of Professor. Theodor Dingermann, University of Frankfurt
Web on the left of on the propagation conditions
- around the propagationan epidemic to prognosticate, one must know, how humans move. On the basis the movement of money scarcities in the USA due to an Internet play scientists of the institute for Max-Planck for dynamics and self organization place, Goettingen and the University OF California to the university in SantaBarbara in the current expenditure of the trade paper „Nature “regularities for the human travel behavior forwards. Article in addition in mirror-on-line of 26. January 2006.
- Markus Becker: Computers simulate the killer epidemic. In: MIRROR ON-LINE ONE of 21. February 2006. Researcher and health authoritiesit prepares for the fact that the bird flu exciter releases a global epidemic among humans. Computer models are to be used for the forecast of the possible Pandemie process.