Peak oil

development of the world-wide oil delivery per year

that peak oil (English. peak oil, wörtl. Oil summit, also Hubbert's peak and/or. depletion avoiding POINT) (in the German oil promotion maximum, (oil) promotion summit, peak oil) designates the time, starting from which the total claim of several oil fields (regional as global) reaches their maximum. In particular the global oil promotion summit is of great importance, since the decrease of the oil production cannot become balanced for the first time any longer and thus the availability is limited by oil. Transferred oil is not expressed starting from this time any more than quasi inexhaustible, cheap raw material and source of energy for the order. The most important consequence of this lack is a constantly rising price, since the offer cannot satisfy the demand any longer.

oil promotion summits - background

Abb.1: Promotion of a source of oil in several phases. Promotion of several sources of oil follows a Gauss bath tub curve.

The promotion of a conventional source of oil effected in several phases, see. Abb.1 above. The development follows the find. At the beginning of the promotion stores are at very high physical pressure. This has the consequence that the promotion can be kept approximately constant during one period, which can vary from source to source strongly. With increasing exploitation time will it however more difficult to keep the promotion rates constant. The self-pressure of a source decreases rapidly and must be raised artificially, approximately by a pumps by water. In addition at the beginning first highly liquid, light oil is promoted. The remaining quantities are therefore increasingly viscous and heavy. A further measure is therefore introducing chemicals, which let flow it liquefy the oil and to the boreholes. By these additional efforts the energetic and financial expenditure increases for exploitation continuously and after a phase approximately constant mechanical handling capacities steps the promotion of the oil field therefore inevitably into its last phase, the promotion acceptance (close: DEK LINE). This phase can be extended by high technical expenditure, for example by horizontal drillings. Even temporary increases of the promotion were already obtained by technical innovations. The general trend however does not change any longer.

By investigations of the American oil production US oil geologist Marion King Hubbert could point to the 1950er years that the total claim of several sources follows the process of a Gauss bath tub curve, see. Abb.1 down. Since the data were noted very exactly for the exploitation of American oil fields and publicly admits were, Hubbert could already date 1956 the US-American promotion summit by its evaluation on the year 1971 and kept right. The model of the Hubbert curve was confirmed also in the consequence, approximately for the oil production of Norway, which reached the high point in the year 2001.

The model presupposes however that the promotion of a source of oil follows the phases described above. The transmission to the world oil production is therefore expresses problematic, since the promotion of individual sources of oil is often politically affected (ex.s: Oil embargo against the Iraq or the freiwillige restriction of Norwegian production). In addition it comes that data are not public concerning the oil promotion of many countries , in particular the OPEC - States of, partly even the state secret to be subject and from political reasons was intentionally falsified. It admits is that the promotion of the not OPEC states decreases/goes back altogether. Besides it is accepted that the promotion ratio of the OPEC states already close is because of their maximum and can in the Iraq and at the westAfrican coast be only increased. Also one can date the promotion summit only afterwards if the promotion ratios in the review are analyzed. A further large uncertainty is the definition of conventional oil, which has as a consequence that many states spend unorthodox reserves on conventional ones and thus the data situation is falsified.

world-wide oil promotion summit - development

Abb.2: Oil production outside of the OPEC and earlier Soviet Union (FSU) exceeded and drops the high point since then. The oil production of the OPEC and FSU continues to rise however. Source: Strategic Significance OF America's oil flat resource: Volume I - Assessment OF Strategic Issues

with the evaluation of the world-wide oiling system must be included, contrary to the static range (the quotient from reserves and momentary consumption) the removing promotion unedingt also. The usually used static range of the Erdölreserven of the earth (BP: estimated approx. 40-50 years) it is misleading since she suggereriert that one can keep a constant promotion upright up to the exhaustion of all reserves. Apart from the physical connections described above it ignores beyond that that even with the employment of ultramodern technology only about 70% of the reserves can be promoted. In the important oil fields in the Near East is long not reached this peak value, also because by to fast pumping many stores were damaged. The promotion ratio however is the by far most important factor of influence on the world price, because with so far steadily rising demand for oil the price will superproportionally rise. No longer primarily the demand will then adjust the price on the market, but the ever scarcer offer (so-called. „Seller's market “). Without changes of the world-wide power supply this must lead to a last, final oil crisis.

As from the sources of the World oil Balances evident and in Abb.2 shown, the promotion summit was crossed outside of the area of the OPEC and Soviet Union (FSU) in the year 2000.[1] Like the IEA in the oil Market report of 14. March 2006 to 28. March 2006 announced, increased the not OPEC countries (also Soviet Union) despite the high price and boom-ends to world economy the oil production from the year 2004 on 2005 no longer. However an increase of the promotion for 2006 is prognosticated there.[2] In opinion of some experts the promotion summit is to be expected with this combination in the year 2010. However thereby provided that the OPEC will catch so long able is increasing world requirements and the sinking promotion of the remaining world at the same time. Into the OECD - European countries sinks the oil production around 5% annually (tendency rising).[3] At present (January. 2006) can still about 36% of the need from own sources be covered.[4] It is to be expected that 2015 in the European Union 92% must be imported.[5]

In the oil Market report is prognosticated beyond that for 2006 a not OECD Nachfragesteigerung by 1.0 million barrel per day.[6] However thereby a promotion increase of the not OECD countries is accepted by 1.2 million barrel per day.[7] Therefore it remains questionable from where the oil for the OECD of countries is to come, because the demand rises here around accepted 0.5 mb/d [8] with a sinking promotion of approx. 0,3 mb/d [9] - therefore is missing to the market in the year 2006 0.6 million barrel per day. Thus the prognosis in the comparison improves to the previous month around 0,3 mb/d.

indications for forthcoming oil promotion summit

restraint with the new building of infrastructure

the restraint with the new building of pipelines and refineries, which can be observed in some places , could represent the signs of one „to going down industry “. If there large, long-term investments are not worthwhile themselves any longer, they are not any longer transacted. Instead with the existing material under full load one produces. Furthermore indications could be the not taking place new building of oiling anchors, the maroden conveyor plants in Russia and at the Kaspi sea, the sluggish structure of Iraqi oil production or fully power stations and refineries charged to capacity and the obsolete in the USA. These circumstances can lead with small disturbances and bottlenecks to substantial effects on the oil market and the price (Volatilität). A further reason for substantial turbulences at the oil markets can represent the consumer behavior and the intervention of speculators. Peak oil will be accompanied by substantial price fluctuations and also temporary promotion decreases therefore with high probability, before the final price rise begins.

increasing use of special engineerings

a further indication is the increasing attempt of the increase of the production of individual fields by employment of special techniques. Some experts consider harmful thereby however an exaggerated, increase of the delivery often demanded by the industrial nations finally, since high extraction rates can damage or to it lead an oil field irreversibly that an increased percentage stays on badly or not at all promotable oil in the field. With smaller oil fields in Syria this effect was already observed. This could later negatively affect existing and taken into account prognoses over oil reserves. Such a circumstance with a large field as for example Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) would probably cause panic reactions. There because of leaving productivity already „bottle brush drillings were accomplished “with water injections.

excess of the promotion summit of large oil fields

production in two of the three largest oil fields reached its promotion maximum. The oil field Burgan in Kuweit - which second largest oil field of the world - its promotion maximum reached oil company 2005 according to statement Kuwait. It is in the next years still up to 1.7 million barrel/day to promote.[10] Cantarell in Mexico - which oil field with the world-wide second largest daily output - its promotion maximum reached at the beginning of 2006 according to statement of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). It produced so far 2 million barrel/day. That corresponds to 60% of the total production of Mexico. The forecast decrease amounts to here 6%, production 2008 is only 1.43 million barrel/day to amount to.[11]

increasing bringing up for discussion

since 2005 recognize both a current study of the international energy agency and the US energy Ministry the problem of a production high point on. Also the Federal Institution for geosciences and raw materials recognizes the phenomenon of a promotion maximum on and estimates its time in at the latest 10-20 years; this is a comparatively optimistic estimation.

Meanwhile also US president has George W. Bush the reality taken up by peak oil to the political agenda, to designate even if without the fact publicly directly. In its annual speech „State OF the union ADDRESS “(„SOTU “) to 31. January 2006 before the American congress announced the president - under the title „impact for progressive energies “(Advanced Energy initiative) - a break with „of Americas oil dependence “and a turn for the development of alternative energies, with which however, apart from „the classical “regenerativ energies such as sun, wind and bio fuels, also and above all the nuclear energy is meant. [12]

In a TV-discussion Bush to 2005 officiating ministers of economics Don Evans has short time later the peak oil fears of the Bush government with view of „the SOTU “- speech again confirms. Evans: „There is world-wide no sufficient oil offer (more) for a full-extent growth of our economics or the world economy. “(„There is emergency enough supply OF oil into the world tons grow our economy or the global economy RK its fill potential… “). [13]

price history

Abb.3: The price history since 1999 witnesses from an increasing demand and/or. scarcer resources

after free market mechanisms the price for a property must rise, as long as the demand is larger than the offer. Momentarily the world-wide demand for oil increases still. In the past the oil production with this demand step could hold. However it will already come in the apron from peak oil to demand surplus, if production can be increased only little. The price rises in this case until sufficient market participant withdraws their demand, because they cannot to pay or want the market price any longer. Fig. it shows 3 that off approx. 1999 the oil price tendentious increases, only the terrorist attacks on the world trade center in the 11. September 2001, which entailed a sinking demand for kerosene, could lower the price. One can observe this price effect also at the decreasing/going back fuel consumption in Germany. This mechanism works first mainly growth-braking, since the actual delivery does not decrease/go back yet and only no additional customers can be served. Itself the situation will intensify if it comes to a real decrease of the world-wide promotion and itself the offer side reduced. Starting from this moment must be content also past market participants with fewer oils, which lets the price rise again until sufficient market participant steps out. The further development is coined/shaped of how the demand adjusts itself.

serves alternatives to

the oil oil primarily the production of energy. Around itself to become conscious the conception that oil is the basis, helps itself the meaning of oil on since beginning the 20. Century the modern industrial company developed. All forms of alternative energy sources, their research and development, the start-up of power stations and their maintenance up to their outline were so far only possible by steadily existing, cheap oil.

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A possibility alternative energy sources to measure offers the ERoEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested about: Produced energy from spent energy) index describes, like much energy to be spent must do (EGG), in order to produce a certain quantity energy (IT). ERoEI is thus ER/EI. The more largely this value, the “more cheaply” is the energy source. Something other representation of the same circumstances is designated the net energy in such a way specified those the part of the energy, which one out-gets with the process, if one from the produced energy (HE) takes the assigned off (EGG). Thus ER-EI. A ERoEI of unity (1: 1) means a net energy of zero and it becomes irrelevant, how highly the oil price lies. At the beginning 19. Century lay the ERoEI for oil production with 100:1. Nowadays it is appropriate for places with for instance 10:1 for conventional oil fields and somewhat under it for low water drillings in the ocean or similarly complex production methods and -. Oil production from the Canadian Ölsanden takes place under substantial employment of natural gas and water. The bitumen-like oil is very tough and must be heated up to be able to separate over it from the sand and must thereafter under further energy employment be reformed, so that easily flowing fuel becomes from it. The ERoEI becomes lying on between 3:1 and 4:1 estimated.

The table shows further (roughly estimated) for different sources of energy and - vectors (source: Sustainability journal). From it it follows that the use of ethanol and hydrogen are not suitable as energy vector. The values for wind force vary very strongly and can reach every now and then ERoEI of 50:1 (see below).

other fossil energy sources

coal

coal is in fact most common and fossil sources of energy existing in the largest quantity, them has the largest static range under the fossil sources of energy. Coal serves at present above all current production. With coal liquefaction coal could replace oil even directly. This would bring however different problems with itself: First of all with the liquefaction a part of the energy to be lost. Secondly that would be CO ₂- Output of the liquefied coal substantially more highly than of oil and - with the liquefaction - also higher than that the direct use of coal. Thirdly these processes would be financially aufwändig. Fourth this would reduce the large static range of coal substantially, since she is used mainly for generation of current, which constitutes only about 13% of primary energy consumption.

Natural gas

natural gas is the most pollution free fossil source of energy. Besides natural gas can replace in principle oil within some ranges (without transformation), directly approximately to the drive for motor vehicles. However natural gas is missing in sufficient quantities, in order to replace oil - peak gas is already expected 2025. The moreover one some geologists assume that of Russia are not as large reserves as indicated.

nuclear energy

nuclear fission

the nuclear fission represents a possibility of supporting the current supply medium-term. However only in newer fast breeders from the nature uranium the 60-100 subject quantity of fissile material to breed again again and thus for many thousand years the power supply to guarantee can.

To the use in conventional nuclear power plants the world-wide uranium deposits apply however as strongly limited; the price for uranium rose on the world market lately (2005) already substantially.

China announced 2004 to build until 2020 altogether 30 new reactors and also in Finland a nuclear power plant is built. The reasons for it are appropriate in the fear of the governments before an approaching oil point than into the comparatively small greenhouse gas - for emissions however probably less by nuclear power stations. Besides also efforts of the energy companies themselves exist to cancel the door from the nuclear power, decided in many places.

The electric current at present however hardly offers a solution for fertilizer production and transport. Besides is difficult it to foresee, which time the dismantling of the global uranium uran-Bodenschätze becomes uneconomic compared with other forms of energy. With one this transferred however as insignificant to the breeder technology applies, since also only 1/60 of the original promoted quantity for the same achievement would be necessary today.

De IST jedoch matrijs Endlagerung van het Probleem van Großes der Kernspaltung des radioaktiven Abfalls. Until today no adequate solution was found for the removal of the arrears developing during the nuclear fission. Also the CO ₂ - balance of the nuclear power is not neutral. Substantial quantities of CO ₂ become with the exploitation of uranium, whose transport and subsequent treatment produce, with the building of the power stations and by their pedantic disposal.

the nuclear fusion

is regarded

to nuclear fusion and hydrogen nuclear fusion of some experts as alternative, with which river and from this hydrogen can be produced. However even optimists assume that up to the technical use still about 50 years will offense. Thus a role might play itself at best in view of for the moment drawing energy problem the nuclear fusion as long-term energy source.

Hydrogen actual against some statements - no energy source existing on earth, but only one source of energy. This is thus no alternative to the oil as energy pours.

renewable energies

those forms of energy, which are inexhaustible after human yardsticks, are called renewable energies. The largest part of these is caused directly or indirectly thereby by the sun exposure.

Water power

water power is used for more than 100 years for the electricity production. The majority of suitable artificial lakes is already put on, so that only few additional development capacities exist.

Wind energy

wind energy produced already in the year 2004 approx. 5.8 per cent of the German river. Planned offshore wind parks in north and Baltic Sea represent a further Ausbaupotenzial. In addition it comes that the ashore built plants lie in the performance class from 0,5 to 1.8 megawatts (MW). The plants of the “new” generation (z planned for the offshore employment. B. Enercon, Repower) however open undreamt-of dimensions (5 - 6 MW for each wind-powered device). So could already 2 to 3 really large offshore parks (z. B. more than 200 plants) more - and more constantly - river produce than all Onshore plants of Germany together.

Sea energy

sea energy in form of tides can be used by tidal power stations only at few places. Marine power plants were realized so far only as small test ranges; the available power is substantial compared with the construction costs. The first wave power stations are in the sample phase. Here the Wellenenergie is converted into mechanical energy, which propels then a generator for generation of current.

Solar energy

also solar energy gains world-wide significance. Their potential is regionally different, z. T. but substantially. Thus theoretically the world primary energy need ( not world requirements of electric current, which constitute only about 13% of it) with solar energy would leave itself covers. With an efficiency of the transformation from at present 16% a surface of 650 km x would produce 650 km in the seeing era sufficiently river, in Germany would necessary be a surface of 1100 km x 1100 km, which exceed however the size of the republic around the 3,4fache. In order to cover the primary energy need of Germany, a surface was used there by 213 km x 213 km. This corresponds to 12.7% of the national surface or 26% of the agrarian surfaces. Requirements of electric current of Germany could be covered at 76 km x 76 km solar cells alone, without considering wind and hydro-electric power plants already installed. This corresponds to 1.6% of the national surface and/or. less than all available roof areas. The independent current supply is thus for purely theoretically alone possible also in this country by solar cells on all roofs, particularly since in solar fields also still wind-powered devices could be set up. The purely theoretical considerations to produce the river exclusively in the seeing era are from economic criteria not meaningful and for reasons of dependence also not intended. But straight solar cells are suitable extremely well for Kleinstkraftwerke and isolated solutions. Even a building roof arranged after the south is sufficient for the complete current supply of a single family house in South Germany. Also extraterrestrial solutions are considered: Solar fields in the orbit, energy transfer to the earth by laser beam. At the time solar cell production is due to boom-ends chip industry, whose overproduction was used by purest silicon to date for the solar cell production, extremely braked. Only 1/1000 of the purity are necessary for the solar cell production. The silicon price shot extreme due to the high demand of the solar industry up, whereby the reducing in price trend stagnated. Many enterprises recognized this new market and turned to the production of the cheaper solar silicon . A relaxation of the market situation and prices is however only 2007 in view. The raw material silicon is in principle practically for an unlimited period present, since usual quartz sand represents only oxidized silicon (silicon dioxide).

Geothermal Blockheizkraftwerke

geothermal Blockheizkraftwerke could cover half of the national power requirement in Germany medium-term about.

Biomass

under biomass all fall those forms of energy, which are won directly from predominantly vegetable in addition, animal materials: To it belong and. A. Ethanol (won from sugar plants or wood), vegetable oils and synthetic fuels such as Sunfuel from biomass.

With the cultivation from biomass to the energy production it applies to note that the industrielle agriculture, which must carry the cultivation out in sufficient quantities (additional to food production), so far to large parts on oil as energy source is based. Nevertheless artificial fertilizer can be synthesized over the most diverse chemical processes. The energy needed for it can be made available again from regenerativ sources. [14] Beyond that lasting rural economy offers an option, by which harvest quantities can be lowered be increased and at the same time fertilizer and Pestizidverbrauch. [15]

The total energy balance of vegetable oils is differently evaluated: Both fertilization and wide cultivation are energieaufwändig and with all problems of Monokulturen afflicted. On the other hand the energy expenditure for long routes of transportation and for the processing is void in refineries, since vegetable oils without further processing can be used. A further important advantage is those CO ₂ - neutrality of the burn of vegetable oils.

With the production of BtL fuel (bio measure of tons of liquid) like Sunfuel can be fallen back to external regenerativ hydrogen. Also the process energy can be made available from regenerativ energy sources. Thus one achieves a clearly higher yield per biomass, and/or. per surface. VOLKSWAGEN speaks with the use of external hydrogen of 100% more yield. [16] Considers one the far positive energy balance for example from wind force (EROEI > ), then the total energy balance of BtL improves 50 at good locations clearly. Since from BtL the energy expenditure does not admit yet publicly is, in addition however none can be met exactly statement. One can be said however, during the transformation from biomass to fuels plays the fertilization only a small role, most energy must on the process energy (steam and electricity) be spent (see to bio ethanol [17]). One tries to keep the routes of transportation as short today as possible. Today if the refineries are specialized in different types of oil, then the biomass will be adapted refineries of the future on the plants of the region.

Hydrogen

hydrogen must be manufactured only by electrolysis, the efficiency here amounts to 75%. In addition the liquefaction is afflicted with further 20% at losses. The power density of the liquid hydrogen amounts to compared with gasoline only about 1/4, whereby the tanks would have to exhibit a very large volume. A cubic meter liquid hydrogen weighs straight once 70 kg. The efficiency from the river to the kinetic energy is not with approximately 25%

hydrogen is similarly as oil a source of energy, an energy source. If one would like to manufacture the energy equivalent of a barrel oil with wind stream (9 cent/a KW/H) as liquid hydrogen, then this corresponds to a barrel price of 297 $.

Accumulators

accumulators have the disadvantage that they can to be only very slowly loaded and relatively fast wear. Here lithium ion Akkus with approx. offer. 500 Wh/Liter the largest power density with at the same time relatively small weight. A Akku with 120 cm*60 cm*30 cm could store thus 108 KW/H electricity, with which a passenger car could drive several hundred kilometers. However the interior reconditions continue to rise always at temperatures under 0 °C, whereby the entnehmbare energy quantity drops. At temperatures to -25 °C the electrolytes can freeze. Besides would have to be done without the comfort of a heating or an air conditioning system due to the high power requirement. A combination with hydrogen or bio ethanol a heating seems here the most meaningful solution.

Plugin hybrid cars could defuse the situation. They store sufficient energy around the average daily distance to master. Everything which beyond that goes, becomes with biological or synthetic fuels denied. A Plugin hybrid gulf with 100 kg new A123 system accumulators would have to be able to put back around 40-50 km (7-8 KW/H). The Akkus can again be loaded then over night. That is enough, because per day the few drivers put more than 50 km back.[18]

note

in the sum still 9801 PWh at fossil fuels are available in the year 2005. World primary energy consumption amounted to 2005 107 PWh. Thus the static range amounts to approx. 91 years. However the world power requirement rises until 2030 according to estimations of the IEA around 50%, whereby the range is shortened clearly [19]. The moreover one the CO 2 resulting from the burn _could strengthen the greenhouse effect further and the distortions caused thereby with simultaneous increase in population on according to UN-estimations approx. 9 billion to 2050 food supplying problems cause.

consequences of the oil promotion summit

general

the problem around the oil promotion summit is difficult very complex and even from specialists to check up. A general consent consists of the fact that the today's standard of living in the industrialized countries with its high energy consumption not to be kept upright to be able. It appears also very improbably that the today's growth ideology could be continued, since it was based so far on sources of energy, which accumulated for a long time before their introduction. The two large uncertainties are the energy conservation potentials and the possibilities of alternative sources. Furthermore it is questionable to what extent the society will be able itself to adjust in time to the change. Thus very different scenarios develop from becoming extinct the human race the off up to excluding positive acceptance are enough. In the further some aspects are more near lit up.

A lack of oil means a lack of (i) an energy source and (ii) a raw material.

About 40% of total energy consumption in Germany are based on oil. Simplified this part of the power supply is regarded more expensively and precipitates medium-term. In principle there are two consequences, which follow with a smaller quantity of oil for energy production.

1. The energy won so far from oil is saved to a certain part.
2. The energy won so far from oil is replaced to a certain part by other energy sources.

The question is thereby above all whether during a reduction of the consumption of oil still the nutrition of the population of world is secured and the economy can continue. The simplification finds its borders however fast in the replacement by other forms of energy. Because it is questionable whether alternatives (A) can be financially just as favorable as oil (B) similar qualitative characteristics to exhibit (Transportabilität) as well as (C) to be quantitatively sufficiently made available to be able.

Sufficient it is frequently not noted that oil - which concerns the energy question - mainly as easily transportable, carryable fuel serves and in (location-bound) the electricity production only a very much subordinated role plays. If necessary with the production of heating warmth regenerativ energies can replace fuel oil directly. For the maintenance of the world-wide transportation economics, on which the globalisierte economy is based, renewable energies offer so far to no adequate substitution possibilities for fossil refinery products such as Diesels, gasoline or kerosene.

From Colin Campbell comes with Rimini minutes (also depletion minutes) a suggestion, with the help of whose the oil price is to be kept low and which is to be minimized effect by peak oil.

increase in power of the OPEC

was exceeded there promotion summits of the oil producers outside of the OPEC in the year 2000, the portion of OPEC oil on the world market will rise. This increase could not become balanced any more by increase of the not OPEC promotion. That would have to the consequence that the OPEC becomes again more powerful and more influential, since a ever larger portion of the world oil production on its territory takes place in particular in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. At the beginning of of 2006 promoted the OPEC 34 million barrel per day, where however 4.4 is included mb/d liquid gas (NGL).[20] By the increasing dependence of the industrial nations on OPEC oil this influence on the price and thus political pressure, substantial by change of the promotion ratio, could exercise.

rising oil price

financial well equipped world regions with a rising oil price first will absorb the principal part of world oil production, which must lead to a disadvantage of the developing countries.

Since also the agriculture is world-wide strongly dependent on the oil, alone economic problems will not arise, but also the hunger problem continues to intensify. Possibly then also world-wide food production reaches its maximum.

Pessimistic voices regard peak oil therefore as the turning point in the history of the industrialized world, since this is dependent on cheap oil and constant growth in many ranges.

Rising oil prices will settle in the consequence in very many products dependent on the oil, which could contribute to a generally rising inflation.

The economic demand must decrease/go back inevitably, since the consumers more moneys must spend on energy.

transportation with largest problems

for the central question, like the world economy their immense transportation need without inexpensive oil (gasoline, Diesel, kerosene) or natural gas mastered, is still no satisfying alternatives recognizable. At present world-wide invested into the capacity extension of bio ethanol , bio Diesel and plants the synthetic fuels (BtL fuel , GtL fuel , CtL fuel) manufacture. The conversion must be advanced briskly, there the available time window also - depending upon estimation - 5 to 15 years up to reaching one comprehensively on the world economy of piercing maximum of the oil production with security as very scarce to be regarded must. The same applies to a very large portion of the machines used in the industry and agriculture, which are propelled so far with oil products.

Contrary to the transportation can most other ranges, which use oil or natural gas at present at justifiable expenditure to electric current from renewable energies are changed over. With bio Diesel or bio ethanol to replace those fails to the complete Spritbedarf in view of world devastation (greenhouse effect) and the rising population of world because of the mangelden agricultural surfaces, (increase approx. 250,000 humans per day) mainly to the cultivation by food to be used must. The desert surfaces uselessable for the agriculture could be provided with solar cells, which can convert 3% of the sun exposure but 16% opposite plants not only directly into electric current.

market solution

of some economists is accepted that such problems of the Transition do not exist in fact. The idea of the market solution exists in the acceptance that the market solves the problem in the play from supply and demand practically from alone. It is accepted that so-called unorthodox oil fields (Ölsand, oil shale) with rising oil prices become profitable. With the fact it is problematic that the energy balance for such occurrences which can be exploited with difficulty is ignored, and/or that with rising energy price naturally also the costs of the promotion of oil rise. Some experts assume the often quoted enormous oil and occurrences in Canada cannot be exploited in the hoped for measure, because for it more energy is necessary, than the exploitation brings in. It is completely insignificant, as highly the price may also rise.

future oil production

discovery of new Erdölquellen

whether still new large fossil sources it is discovered and opened, is in the professional world disputed. Despite intensive search for years no more oil fields were discovered, which would correspond to the grown need only approximately. Momentarily the small oil price does not cover the high costs of the necessary development projects. With a rise of the oil price appears it unite experts as be worth-worth, so far not intensively examined areas (z. B. To concern Siberia) exploratorisch. Apart from very high development and promotion costs particularly the negative energy balance speaks against “unorthodox” Erdölquellen (Ölsande , oil shales, deep sea drillings, Siberia or Alaska exploration, bitumen etc. ), because the promotion and refining in many cases use more energy here, than the oil in the long run promoted contains. Besides most of these unorthodox oil types have extremely high CO ₂ - output. Also these sources z lie. T. in ecologically sensitive areas.

technical progress on use of existing camps

some experts assumes also with the technology used today the well-known Öllagerstätten were not optimally used. This is because of the fact that the expenditure for the development and the employment of techniques, which make a better utilization possible is not worthwhile. With a rising oil price it would become very probably worthwhile however to achieve at higher expenditure a better utilization. Now it is correct that in the past the promotion efficiency was constantly increased. So is in the past approx. 85 years the yield doubled. Even if this increase were to be expected further, this would be not sufficient after today's consumption. Besides experts assume the technology development in the oil production can be hardly still optimized.

case of population

as case of population (also Malthusi disaster; after Thomas's Robert Malthus) the situation is designated, into resources any longer is not sufficient around the population to receive, caused by to strong population growth, an exhaustion of resources or both. As classical example of a “malthusischen disaster” frequently the Osterinsel is called as example, on which by complete clearing of the trees boat and building of houses became impossible and went to 80 to 90% of the population to reason. The general problem that was discussed also in the book the borders of growth in long-term, global scenarios.

For a possible case of population by the shortage of oil above all the modern agriculture is along relevant. Because by the use of machines and artificial fertilizers the modern agriculture is dependent on finite fossil resources.

electric current

it is measured out a large potential in the transportation sector, since nearly all alternatives, Photovoltaik, wind energy, water power, terrestrial heat, sea energy, nuclear fission and nuclear fusion primarily electric current to produce. This can be transported relatively loss-free (5%) also over 1000 km. Unfortunately it can be stored with the today's technology only heavily or in small quantities or with bad efficiencies. For automobiles come here only the very lossy techniques, batteries and hydrogen as sources of energy into question or an automatic rail system for automobiles similarly the rapid-transit railway.

transformation of the economy

by the large dependence of the transportation, which agriculture and the industry will come too much it large problems, as soon as the offer at oil cannot satisfy no more the need completely. Even if the current supply with nuclear energy or alternative energy sources will maintain can, then a lack will have large negative effects of oil on practically all ranges of the life for all. In addition, one can assume that itself a larger part of the need for the time being of the then expensive oil on cheaper natural gas and. A. will shift, which naturally only retards the problem. General is to be counted on a transformation of the restaurant way: The today's dependence on mineral oil will have itself to dissolve due to the peak oil problem central until long-term. So that accompanying the kind of managing will change, for example to one more regional managing, which by shorter routes of transportation and a higher measure of regional self-sufficiency reduces the dependence on mineral oil. [21]

„

• many occupations it will not any longer give quotations: Advertising specialists, directors of selling etc. I believe, work again will become and much very practical around the food production will turn. To “James Howard artist, 2003

see also

• energy conservation
• energy crisis
• oil/tables and diagrams
• renewable energies
• fossil energy
• Hermann Scheer
• oil crisis
• Rimini minutes
• hydrogen economy

sources

• Word oil balance Charts, in: IEA: Oil Market report [18.02. 2006] ↑
• OECD oil and (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• OECD oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• Non OECD oil and (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• Non OECD oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• OECD Europe oil and (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• OECD Europe oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• OPEC oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• Non OPEC oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• World oil Supply (pdf), in: IEA Monthly oil Market report 14.03.2006 [28.03.2006] ↑
• keys World Energy statistics (pdf), IEA, 2005 ↑
• renewable energies have economical use in billion height, in: Information campaign for renewable energies, 15.02.2006 [18.02.2006] ↑
• Kuwait's biggest field start ton of run out OF oil in: AME 12.11.2005 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• Canales: Output wants drop RK Cantarell field, in: El universal on-line one, 10.02. 2006 [18.02. 2006] ↑ (see. also: “Analysis: Mexico of faces production DEK LINE in: UPI 15.02. 2006)
• G. W. Bush: State OF the union 2006, in: Office OF the press Secretary 31.01. 2006 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• 'hard ball with Chris Matthews' for February. 2nd - Transscript, in MSNBC.com 03.02. 2006 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• SunFuel® - the way to the lasting mobility (pdf) in: ? [18.02.2006] ↑
• Alexander E. Farrell et. aluminium: Ethanol CAN Contribute ton of Energy and Environmental Goals, in: Renewable and Appropriate Energy Labatory Research Publications and of report. urspr. published in SCIENCE 311, 27.01. 2006 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• Norbert Auner: Silicon as link between renewable energies and hydrogen (pdf), in: Deutsche Bank Research, Research Notes, Working PAPER Series No. 11, 30.04. 2004 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• A123Systems Receives $30 million; Plan ton of UP Production and Accelerate development for Hybrids, in: Green Car Congress 06.02.2006 [18.02.2006] ↑
• Norbert rust: Regional managing with regional currencies against “peak oil” 04.06. 2005 [18.02. 2006] ↑
• J.N. Pretty, 2005: Resource Conserving Agriculture Increases Yields in Developing Countries, in: Environmental Science & Technology, volume of 40. ↑