Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006

Chris Huhne, Menzies Campbell and Simon Hughes at the London Hustings in Friends Meeting House on 23rd February
Chris Huhne, Menzies Campbell and Simon Hughes at the London Hustings in Friends Meeting House on 23rd February

The 2006 Liberal Democrats leadership election was won by Menzies Campbell. He won 45% of the first preference votes, which rose to 58% when second preferences were counted. It was called by party leader Charles Kennedy on January 5 2006, when, following a period of heavy speculation about both his leadership and his personal life, he called for a leadership contest to be held to allow party members to decide if his leadership should continue. On January 7 2006, following public pressure from many prominent Liberal Democrats to stand down, including twenty-five MPs who publicly announced they would refuse to serve on the party's frontbench if he did not step down, he announced that he would not be standing in the leadership election, resigning as party leader "with immediate effect."

Following Kennedy's resignation, four candidates declared their intention to stand: then interim leader Menzies Campbell, Mark Oaten, the party president Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne. Oaten then withdrew from the contest and subsequently admitted to relations with a male prostitute. Nominations for the leadership closed on January 25 2006. The deadline for withdrawals was 4 p.m. on January 26. Campbell was announced as the winner on March 2 2006.

For a timeline of events from Charles Kennedy's initial statement on January 5 2006, see article: Timeline of events in the Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006.

Contents

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Results

First round
Candidate Votes %
Menzies Campbell 23,264 44.7
Chris Huhne 16,691 32.1
Simon Hughes 12,081 23.2
Turnout 52,036 72%
Second round
Candidate Transfers Votes %
Menzies Campbell +6,433 29,697 57.1
Chris Huhne +4,937 21,628 41.6
Not transferable +711 711 1.4

Note: if non-transferable votes are discounted (i.e., the two-candidate preferred vote), the percentage of the vote won by Campbell is 57.9% and that won by Huhne is 42.1%. Simon Hughes' second preferences split as follows: Campbell 53.2%, Huhne 40.9%, non-transferable (i.e. no second preference given) 5.9%.

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Candidates

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Standing

At the close of nominations on January 25 2006, the following Liberal Democrat politicians had been successfully nominated. They each required the nominations of at least a tenth of the Parliamentary party (7 MPs) and 200 party members from at least 20 constituencies, although people were able to nominate more than one candidate.

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Sir Menzies "Ming" Campbell

Supporters include:

  • MPs:

Paul Burstow (agent), Danny Alexander, Norman Baker, John Barrett, Tom Brake, Colin Breed, Jeremy Browne, Malcolm Bruce, Vincent Cable, Alistair Carmichael, Nick Clegg, Ed Davey, Don Foster, Andrew George, Julia Goldsworthy, Nick Harvey, John Hemming, Paul Keetch, Norman Lamb, David Laws, Michael Moore, John Pugh, Alan Reid, Dan Rogerson, Adrian Sanders, Sir Robert Smith, Jo Swinson, Matthew Taylor, Sarah Teather, John Thurso, Jenny Willott [1]

  • Lords:

Lord McNally (Liberal Democrat leader in the House of Lords), Baroness Williams, Lord Kirkwood (who is working on Campbell's campaign), former Lib Dem leader Lord Ashdown, former Liberal leader Lord Steel, Lord Addington, Lord Avebury, Baroness Barker, Lord Carlile, Lord Chidgey, Lord Dholakia, Lord Dykes, Lord Ezra, Baroness Falkner, Lord Fearn, Earl of Glasgow, Lord Goodhart, Lord Holme, Lord Hooson, Lord Jacobs, Lord Jones, Lord Lester, Baroness Linklater, Baroness Ludford (also an MEP), Lord Mackie, Earl of Mar and Kellie, Baroness Nicholson (also an MEP), Lord Phillips, Lord Shutt, Lord Smith of Clifton, Lord Thomas of Gresford, Baroness Tonge, Lord Tordoff, Lord Tyler, Lord Watson.

Chris Davies, Andrew Duff, Fiona Hall, Sajjad Karim, Sarah Ludford (also a Baroness), Emma Nicholson (also a Baroness), Diana Wallis, Graham Watson

Andrew Arbuckle, Tavish Scott, Iain Smith, Jamie Stone

  • AMs:

Dee Doocey, Kirsty Williams [2]

  • Newspapers:

The Guardian [3]

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Simon Hughes

Supporters include:

  • MPs:

Tim Farron (campaign manager), Annette Brooke, Evan Harris, Mike Hancock, Paul Holmes, Mark Hunter, Bob Russell, Paul Rowen, Steve Webb, Phil Willis, Richard Younger-Ross.[4][5]

  • Lords:

Lord Garden, Lord Glenconner, Lord Roberts

Robert Brown, Mike Pringle, Mike Rumbles

  • AMs:

Peter Black

  • Others:

Former MP Sir Cyril Smith,[6] Peter Tatchell (member of the Green Party) [7]

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Chris Huhne

Supporters include:

  • MPs:

Lynne Featherstone and Sandra Gidley (campaign co-managers), Stephen Williams (agent), Lorely Burt, Martin Horwood, David Howarth, Susan Kramer, John Leech, Greg Mulholland, Mark Williams, Roger Williams

  • Lords:

Lord Bradshaw, Lord Clement-Jones, Viscount Falkland, Baroness Hamwee, Baroness Harris of Richmond, ex-SDP leader Lord Maclennan, Baroness Miller of Chilthorne Domer, Baroness Neuberger, Lord Newby, Baroness Northover, Lord Oakeshott, Lord Redesdale, Lord Rodgers, Baroness Scott of Needham Market, Lord Taverne, Baroness Thomas of Walliswood, Lord Tope (also a London AM), Baroness Walmsley

  • MEPs:

Sharon Bowles, Liz Lynne, Bill Newton Dunn

  • MSPs:

John Farquhar Munro, Jeremy Purvis, Nora Radcliffe, Euan Robson, Margaret Smith

  • AMs:

Graham Tope (also a Lord) [8][9]

  • Newspapers:

The Independent,[10] The Economist, The Independent on Sunday [11]

  • Others:

Rosie Boycott, former MP Sir Clement Freud, Claire Rayner, Sandi Toksvig,[12] Polly Toynbee [13]

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Withdrew from the contest

The following Liberal Democrat politicians initially stood but subsequently withdrew from the election: [14]

  • Charles Kennedy
    • He was subsequently reported as backing Oaten, before Oaten's withdrawal, although Kennedy's office denied this. The support of his close aide Lord Newby for Chris Huhne was interpreted by the press as an indication that Kennedy was backing Huhne.[15]
  • Mark Oaten
    • Campaign manager: Lembit Öpik. Nominators: Öpik, Mike Hancock, John Hemming, Paul Keetch, John Leech, Paul Rowen and Bob Russell. Various media outlets reported that Oaten had the tacit backing of Charles Kennedy, although this was denied by Kennedy's office. [16] [17] His nominators included several MPs who were prepared to nominate any serious challenger to ensure a wide contest: Mike Hancock (who was supporting Hughes), John Hemming, Paul Keetch (who was supporting Campbell), and Paul Rowen (who was supporting Hughes). [18] [19] Öpik remained the only MP to publicly declare his support, with Baroness Ludford the only peer. [20] [21]
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The rules of the contest

A postal ballot was held of all members of the Liberal Democrats. In order to vote, people to be current members of the party on January 25 or people whose membership subscriptions were due within three months of this date. Voting was conducted under the Alternative Vote system (which is the single-winner version of Single Transferable Vote). MPs wishing to stand required the support of 10% of the Parliamentary Party, i.e. seven MPs in the then House of Commons, plus 200 party members (in total) from at least 20 constituency parties. However, MPs could nominate more than one candidate.

Simon Hughes, in his role as party President, said on Channel 4 News shortly after Kennedy's statement that he would, with the Federal Executive, see whether it is possible to, as Hughes wishes, postpone the leadership campaign until after local elections in May 2006. Following Kennedy's resignation, he continued to moot the possibility of this arrangement. The Federal Executive met on the evening of January 9 2006 to discuss the leadership election and decided to go for an early vote.

Deputy Leader Menzies Campbell became the interim leader, with immediate effect, until he was elected leader on 2 March 2006.

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Opinion polls (leadership candidates)

Opinion Polls of Liberal Democrat Members
Candidate Jan 6-8 (with Kennedy) Jan 6-8 (without Kennedy) Jan 10-13 (Campbell v. Hemming) Feb 6 (at Cardiff hustings) Feb 7-9 Feb 23 (at London hustings) Feb 23 (at London hustings)
Ming Campbell 27% 49% 79% 24.5% 34% 29% 51%
Chris Huhne not given not given not given 30.5% 38% 36% 18%
Simon Hughes 13% 21% not given 19% 27% 21% 31%
Mark Oaten 7% 13% not given not given not given not given not given
Charles Kennedy 27% not given not given not given not given not given not given
John Hemming not given not given 7% not given not given not given not given
Someone Else 18% not given not given not given not given not given not given
Don't Know 8% 16% 13% 26% 16% 14% 0%
Pollster YouGov YouGov YouGov The Times YouGov The Guardian The Independent
Link [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]
Opinion Polls of Liberal Democrat Voters
Candidate Jan 6-8 (with Kennedy) Jan 6-8 (without Kennedy) Jan 18-22 Feb 9-10
Ming Campbell 14% 26% 18% 21%
Simon Hughes 11% 20% 62% 34%
Chris Huhne not given not given 20% 13%
Mark Oaten 3% 8% not given not given
Charles Kennedy 31% not given not given not given
Someone Else 8% not given not given not given
Don't Know 33% 47% not given 33% (approx.)
Pollster YouGov YouGov ICM YouGov
Link [29] [30] [31] [32]
Opinion Polls of All Voters
Candidate Jan 18-22 Jan 19-23 Feb 9-10
Ming Campbell 29% 19% 18%
Simon Hughes 51% 18% 16%
Chris Huhne 20% 2% 10%
Mark Oaten not given 3% not given
Other not given 13% not given
Don't Know not given 46% 56%
Pollster ICM Mori YouGov
Link [33] [34] [35]
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Opening of the campaign

Since Kennedy called the election, there was speculation about the timetable of the contest, particularly with respect to local elections in May. Should the contest be short or long, should the party get it over with as soon as possible, or delay it until after the May elections (the latter being mooted by Simon Hughes)? The decision was taken to start the contest straight away, thus it would be concluded before the May elections.

When Kennedy called the election, no-one else declared themselves as candidates, with several possible contenders explicitly saying they would not stand against him. However, shortly after Kennedy's resignation and withdrawal from the contest, Menzies Campbell was the first candidate to declare his intentions and he rapidly garnered support from several party heavyweights. Early speculation surrounded the positions of the two other favourites, Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten, both of whom had initially declined to say whether they would enter the contest. Most of the other candidates given serious consideration by the media said they were not standing. John Hemming said he was contemplating standing to prevent a coronation, but was considered a rank outsider—he later dropped out.

After Kennedy's withdrawal, there was also speculation as to whether the Parliamentary party would seek a single, unity candidate to avoid a contest, an option initially mooted by Mark Oaten, or whether a leadership campaign would be a good thing for the party. Campbell was soon seen as the most likely person to be that single, unity candidate.

Hughes was identified with the left of the party and was described as being more popular with activists than his fellow MPs. Oaten was seen to be on the right of the party, associated with The Orange Book group. The bookmakers' favourite on the evening of January 7 and onwards, Campbell was seen as a possible unity candidate, more centrist but seen by those on the right as being sympathetic to them. (In his resignation speech, Kennedy decried the simplification of these debates within the party as being 'left' and 'right'.) Being older, Campbell was seen as a possible shorter-term leader who would vacate the post after the next General Election, which would suit the leadership ambitions of some younger and newer members of the Parliamentary party.

The election of David Cameron as leader of the Conservatives focused questions on Campbell's age: old enough to be Cameron's father, was he too old for modern politics or did his seniority give him an advantage, a welcome contrast to Cameron? Another issue early in the campaign was the extent to which the potential candidates had conspired to bring about Kennedy's downfall.

Campbell's backers stressed his authority, his experience and how respected he was even beyond the party. He was described as a unity candidate who could lead the party out of a troubled period. His detractors pointed out that his experience was largely in foreign affairs and described him as an unknown when it came to domestic policy. The implication is that he would lead the party in a more market liberal direction given that his support included prominent figures on the right of the party like Laws and Clegg. They also questioned whether he was sufficiently supportive of Kennedy prior to the resignation. Hughes' supporters also stressed his Parliamentary experience, charisma and his very large majority (over Öpik) in the poll of party members for the post of President two years previously. In policy terms, Hughes's opposition to any role for the market in health and education was cited. Oaten was also seen to be to the right and talked of modernising the party. He attacked the "nanny state" instincts of the Labour government. However, the bookmakers favoured Campbell and Hughes over him. He subsequently withdrew having garnered minimal support among MPs. Chris Huhne entered the contest last, stressing his green policies and soon gathered support, overtaking Oaten in the betting markets.

Subsequent to withdrawing from the contest, it was revealed by a newspaper that Oaten had repeatedly visited a male prostitute. Oaten resigned his frontbench position. It remains unknown whether Oaten knew the story was about to come out when he withdrew from the leadership contest.

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From close of nominations to end of voting

At the close of nominations, there were three candidates: Campbell, Hughes and Huhne.

At the beginning of the campaign, the expectation had been that the leadership campaign would reflect debates within the party between social liberals (represented by Hughes) and market liberals (represented by Oaten). However, as events unfolded, the campaign became dominated by personal issues. This trend continued when Hughes was pressured into admitting to previously having had homosexual as well as heterosexual relationships, after having previously denied being gay. Hughes also apologised for being involved with elements of homophobic campaigning in the 1983 Bermondsey by-election which brought him into the Commons. His defeated rival then, Peter Tatchell, praised Hughes' apology and recommended Liberal Democrat party members vote for him. Hughes slips back in the betting markets.

Shortly after voting papers were posted to party members, a series of polls and quasi-polls suggested that the campaign was now a close run affair between Campbell and Huhne. With Huhne emerging as the (or a) favourite and being previously little known, media coverage in this period focused on Huhne. The final days before the result was announced then saw a surge for Campbell on the betting markets.[36] The final result produced a decisive win for Campbell.

(Campbell's victory automatically resulted in the Deputy Leadership becoming vacant. See: Liberal Democrats deputy leadership election, 2006.)

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The downfall of Charles Kennedy

In the wake of the 2005 General Election, Kennedy's leadership came under increased criticism from those who felt that the Liberal Democrats could have done even better at a time when, arguably, the Official Opposition, the Conservative Party, were in a relatively weak position and the Labour Government unpopular because of the invasion of Iraq. In late 2005, leadership speculation was renewed. After the election of David Cameron as Leader of the Conservative Party in December 2005, it was widely reported that senior members of the Liberal Democrats had told Kennedy that he must either "raise his game" or resign. [37]

A number of issues led to the pressure for Kennedy to resign. There was concern about his problems with alcohol, how he was addressing them and their effects on his performance. Kennedy's leadership style—more a chairman than a leader—was criticised. Many in the party felt Kennedy had failed to resolve debates within the party about future direction (particularly in the wake of Cameron bringing the Conservatives closer to the centre ground). Many of his critics came from the 'right' of the party who wished the Liberal Democrats to, as they saw it, modernise.

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The final few weeks

On December 13, 2005, the BBC's Political Editor, Nick Robinson, claimed that there were briefings against the leader, with members of his party unhappy at what they saw as 'lack of leadership' from Kennedy. A "Kennedy Must Go" petition was started by The Liberal magazine (a publication which is not formally affiliated with the Liberal Democrats, but which espouses liberal ideas, has an editor who is a Lib Dem activist, and which prints articles by many leading Lib Dem MPs) and allegedly had been signed by over 3,300 party members including 386 local councillors and two MPs by the end of 2005 [38]. A 'round robin' letter signed by Liberal Democrat MPs rejecting his leadership received 23 signatures [39]. In retrospect, much of the expressed unhappiness at Kennedy's performance as leader concerned his problems with alcohol.

On January 5, 2006, Kennedy was informed that ITN would be reporting that he had received treatment for alcoholism, and called a sudden news conference to make a personal statement confirming the story. He stated clearly that over the past eighteen months he had been coming to terms with a drink problem, but has sought ongoing professional help. He told reporters that recent questions among his colleagues about his suitability as leader were partly as a result of the drink problem, but stated that he had been dry for the past two months and would be calling a leadership contest to resolve the issues surrounding his authority once and for all[40][41]. It was later claimed that the source for ITN's story was his former press secretary turned ITV News correspondent, Daisy McAndrew.

Responses to Kennedy's statement focused on his previous denials of any problems with alcohol. As recently as the Jonathan Dimbleby programme on ITV1 on December 18, 2005, when asked "Has it been a battle to stay off the booze, have you had to have medical support in any way at all?" Kennedy replied "No, no, no, that is not the case, it is a matter on all fronts - if there's something my doctor really wants me to do over this holiday period as a matter of fact, is give up smoking and I think he's right". [42]

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Resignation

Following Kennedy's admission, a letter from twenty-five Liberal Democrat MPs was delivered to him. It stated that the signatories could no longer serve as frontbench speakers under his leadership, and gave a deadline of Monday January 9 for him to make a decision before they resigned. Despite a combative interview in The Independent at which Kennedy described a decision to resign as a "dereliction of duty", on January 6 a large number of senior Liberal Democrats stated that his position was untenable. Chris Davies (leader of Liberal Democrat Members of the European Parliament) described him as "a dead man walking". A survey for BBC Newsnight found that more than half of Liberal Democrat MPs thought he should resign/his position was untenable, and only seventeen out of sixty-two MPs positively wanted him to stay, while eleven spokepersons from his twenty-three-strong frontbench wanted him to leave. Among those who thought he should go were Norman Lamb and Andrew George, who had served as his Parliamentary Private Secretary, and Matthew Taylor, the chairman of his 1999 leadership campaign.

On January 7 Kennedy called a press conference at 15:00 GMT at which he announced that he was buoyed by the supportive messages he had received from grassroots members, but felt that he could not continue because of the lack of confidence of the MPs. He said he would not be a candidate in the leadership election, and that he would stand down as leader "with immediate effect", with Menzies Campbell acting as interim leader until a new leader has been elected. His leadership lasted six years; he also confirmed in his resignation speech that he does not have any expectations to remain on the frontbench, pledging his loyalty to a new leader "as a backbench" MP, but that he wishes to remain active in the party and politics.[43]

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References

  1. ^ Andrew Grice, Ben Russell and Nigel Morris, "MPs back Campbell as Hughes prepares to join the fray", The Independent, 2006-01-12.
  2. ^ Menzies Campbell (2006). Supporters Backing Menzies Campbell for Leader. Menzies Campbell - Candidate for Leaders of the Liberal Democrats. URL accessed on 2006-01-25.
  3. ^ Oliver King, "I can still win, says Huhne", The Guardian, 2006-02-07. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  4. ^ BBC News, "Hughes enters Lib Dem leader race", 2006-01-12.
  5. ^ The Independent, "Oaten pulls out of Lib-Dem leadership contest", 2006-01-20.
  6. ^ Simon Hughes (2006). Simon Hughes's leadership campaign website. URL accessed on 2006-01-18.
  7. ^ Marc Shoffman (2006). Lib Dem candidate gets gay backing. URL accessed on 2006-01-17.
  8. ^ Greg Hurst, "A dark green Lib-Dem horse joins four-way race for leader", Times Online, 2006-01-12.
  9. ^ Chris Huhne (2006). Supporters Backing Chris Huhne for Leader. Chris Huhne - Candidate for Leaders of the Liberal Democrats. URL accessed on 2006-01-13.
  10. ^ The Independent, "After an invigorating contest, the younger man has come to the fore", The Independent, 2006-02-25. URL accessed on 2006-02-25.
  11. ^ The Independent on Sunday, "Huhne has the strongest claim", The Independent on Sunday, 2006-02-26. URL accessed on 2006-02-26.
  12. ^ Chris Huhne (2006). Celebrity Lib Dems backing Chris Huhne. Chris Huhne - Candidate for Leaders of the Liberal Democrats. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  13. ^ Polly Toynbee, "May the best man win - and not just for the sake of the Lib Dems", The Guardian, 2006-02-10. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  14. ^  BBC News, "Oaten quits Lib Dem leader race", 2006-01-19.
  15. ^ Marie Woolf, "Kennedy's people throw their weight behind Chris Huhne", The Independent, 2006-02-12. URL accessed on 2006-02-12.
  16. ^  Colin Brown, "Revealed: How Kennedy is supporting Oaten for leader", The Independent, 2006-01-18.
  17. ^  Julian Glover and Tania Branigan, "Police investigate Oaten campaign leaks", The Guardian, 2006-01-19.
  18. ^ Brendan Carlin & George Jones, "More line up for Lib Dem race as Campbell falters", telegraph.co.uk, 2006-01-12.
  19. ^ Greg Hurst, "Party contenders set out their stalls", The Times, 2006-01-13.
  20. ^ Ben Russell and Colin Brown, "Oaten's support dwindles to one MP", The Independent, 2006-01-19.
  21. ^ Alice Miles and Greg Hurst, "Oaten to drop out of Lib Dem leadership contest", Times Online, 2006-01-19.
  22. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  23. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  24. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  25. ^ Greg Hurst and Sam Coates, "Lib Dems' dark horse comes up on the rails", The Times, 2006-02-08. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  26. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  27. ^ Tania Branigan, "Survey boosts Huhne's hopes", The Guardian, 2006-02-25. URL accessed on 2006-02-25.
  28. ^ Andrew Grice and Michelle McGagh, "Straw poll puts Campbell ahead in leadership contest", The Independent, 2006-02-25. URL accessed on 2006-02-25.
  29. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  30. ^  YouGov poll results. URL accessed on 2006-01-24.
  31. ^ Julian Glover, "Panel of voters picks Hughes as runaway victor", The Guardian, 2006-01-25. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  32. ^ David Smith, "Campbell is people’s choice for Lib Dems", The Sunday Times, 2006-02-12. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  33. ^ Julian Glover, "Panel of voters picks Hughes as runaway victor", The Guardian, 2006-01-25. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  34. ^ {web reference|title=Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January|url=http://www.mori.com/polls/2006/mpm060123.shtml|urldate=2006-02-14}}
  35. ^ David Smith, "Campbell is people’s choice for Lib Dems", The Sunday Times, 2006-02-12. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  36. ^  The final PB.C betting chart on the Lib Dem race. URL accessed on 2006-03-02.
  37. ^ BBC News, "Kennedy to quit claim 'nonsense'", 2005-12-10. URL accessed on 2006-02-14.
  38. ^ BBC News, "Kennedy hits back over quit call", 2005-12-30.
  39. ^ Andrew Pierce, "'No confidence' letter from Lib Dems forced Kennedy to brink", Times Online, 2006-01-05.
  40. ^ BBC News, "Kennedy admits battling alcohol", 2006-01-05.
  41. ^ Liberal Democrats. Kennedy calls for leadership election. URL accessed on 2006-01-05.
  42. ^ Claire Cozens, "Times apologises after Kennedy drink story", Guardian Unlimited, 2004-10-20.
  43. ^ BBC News, "Embattled Kennedy quits as leader", 2006-01-07.
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See also

Liberal, Social Democrat and Liberal Democrat leadership elections

Liberals: 1967 | 1976                         SDP: 1982

Liberal Democrats: 1988 | 1999 | 2006

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External links